{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bc42b28-62ae-4462-8dd3-66b1203b5d67", "symbol": "3181", "name": "Premia Etf Series -Premia Asia Innovative Technology and Metaverse Theme ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.303, "architecture_energy": 31.745, "architecture_maturity": 68.565, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.13, "rotation_up": 21.47, "upward_expansion": 56.87, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 38.07, "downward_expansion": 20.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 155.916667, 159.575454, 158.271667, 152.22871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 158.649994, "trend_reference": 144.943333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094566, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.393269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.564699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.312551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.228892, "excess_performance": 0.262474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094566, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105875, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.564699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.183126, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074221, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228892, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.009867, "balance": 3.0, "dry_up": 0.044401, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045601, "annualized_volatility": 0.303689, "from_high_reference": -0.089004, "from_low_reference": 0.521093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.943333, "fair_value_reference": 101.393269, "structural_low": 117.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033045, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.003722, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.14937, "worst_return": -0.041928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.138051, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.025958, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.370063, "worst_return": -0.233813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.218936, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.033867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.446199, "worst_return": -0.023993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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163.552726, 151.620952, 145.303871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 168.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5120.0, "trend": 138.998333, "fair_value": 99.275705, "relative_strength": 44.021905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.414943, "energy": 67.35329, "activity_lines": [ 167.926664, 165.449999, 154.02619, 147.326021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 166.0, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 5245.0, "trend": 140.49, "fair_value": 99.750064, "relative_strength": 35.433246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.657439, "energy": 65.007524, "activity_lines": [ 167.489998, 166.284544, 156.0, 149.068064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 151.550003, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 5180.0, "trend": 141.653333, "fair_value": 100.146795, "relative_strength": 20.740182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.265994, "energy": 46.087184, "activity_lines": [ 162.216667, 164.020908, 156.441191, 149.781613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 154.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 5147.5, "trend": 142.818333, "fair_value": 100.544359, "relative_strength": 19.779874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.604171, "energy": 29.706891, "activity_lines": [ 158.506667, 162.230908, 157.046191, 150.578172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.600006, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 5065.0, "trend": 143.848333, "fair_value": 100.943462, "relative_strength": 14.431048, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.935116, "energy": 31.176988, "activity_lines": [ 155.960003, 160.387273, 157.483096, 151.273764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.649994, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 5067.5, "trend": 144.943333, "fair_value": 101.393269, "relative_strength": 18.312551, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.302712, "energy": 31.745376, "activity_lines": [ 155.916667, 159.575454, 158.271667, 152.22871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }