{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bc61ff4-845a-4a7c-b9b5-906e6f206ed1", "symbol": "KEMPOWR", "name": "Kempower Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.117, "architecture_energy": 70.64, "architecture_maturity": 56.972, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 28.16, "upward_expansion": 14.3, "deceleration": 45.5, "rotation_down": 59.01, "downward_expansion": 89.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.090333, 10.227091, 10.994286, 11.712043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.835, "trend_reference": 12.4525, "distance_from_trend": -0.210199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.589327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.407149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.379619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254924, "excess_performance": -0.3785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.407149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 408312, "relative_activity": 1.87426, "balance": 0.337734, "dry_up": 1.368023, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068202, "annualized_volatility": 0.488464, "from_high_reference": -0.433141, "from_low_reference": 0.033088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.4525, "fair_value_reference": 16.589327, "structural_low": 9.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.033205, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.018318, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.252396, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046645, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14749, "worst_return": -0.310194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.199108, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.236763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.234674, "worst_return": -0.347092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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295537, "typical_volume": 232802.15, "trend": 12.620333, "fair_value": 17.072115, "relative_strength": -32.627743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.339501, "energy": 72.543247, "activity_lines": [ 10.335333, 10.497091, 11.410143, 12.051677 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 10.07, "volume": 210208, "typical_volume": 226463.15, "trend": 12.549, "fair_value": 16.841026, "relative_strength": -33.654211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.86725, "energy": 74.955695, "activity_lines": [ 10.237333, 10.357273, 11.200048, 11.88714 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 9.835, "volume": 408312, "typical_volume": 217852.35, "trend": 12.4525, "fair_value": 16.589327, "relative_strength": -34.379619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.117421, "energy": 70.640238, "activity_lines": [ 10.090333, 10.227091, 10.994286, 11.712043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }