{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bc7025d-dd2f-4700-a252-55857a9d75be", "symbol": "9951", "name": "Macauto Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.384, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.18, "architecture_energy": 26.564, "architecture_maturity": 60.63, "architecture_confidence": 90.487, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.17, "rotation_up": 19.94, "upward_expansion": 2.69, "deceleration": 48.43, "rotation_down": 41.11, "downward_expansion": 71.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.92, 53.08, 53.213334, 53.48129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.0, "trend_reference": 53.993333, "distance_from_trend": -0.018397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.548973, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.3889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032847, "excess_performance": -0.474219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024126, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333889, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032847, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.161374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219014, "relative_activity": 0.560968, "balance": 1.161374, "dry_up": 0.551347, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024819, "annualized_volatility": 0.118916, "from_high_reference": -0.171875, "from_low_reference": 0.031128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.993333, "fair_value_reference": 59.548973, "structural_low": 51.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.008482, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.017228, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.095865, "worst_return": -0.093697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.042276, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.067785, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.120477, "worst_return": -0.081879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065603, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.099303, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.15122, "worst_return": -0.131187, "sufficient": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.764994, "energy": 30.861754, "activity_lines": [ 52.966667, 53.134546, 53.310476, 53.623656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.0, "volume": 168005, "typical_volume": 391974.9, "trend": 54.06, "fair_value": 59.654721, "relative_strength": -31.9305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.820925, "energy": 33.900992, "activity_lines": [ 52.9, 53.109091, 53.257619, 53.549677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 53.0, "volume": 219014, "typical_volume": 390421.3, "trend": 53.993333, "fair_value": 59.548973, "relative_strength": -33.3889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.179583, "energy": 26.564383, "activity_lines": [ 52.92, 53.08, 53.213334, 53.48129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }