{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bd3060d-3281-418a-8e9d-a978396ecca4", "symbol": "BFK", "name": "Pharmesis International Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.501, "architecture_energy": 92.108, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.931, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.63, "rotation_up": 13.33, "upward_expansion": 26.66, "deceleration": 31.33, "rotation_down": 81.27, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.126181, 0.212675, 0.276667, 0.298404 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.107, "trend_reference": 0.31661, "distance_from_trend": -0.662045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.306918, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.651372, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.33843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.631034, "excess_performance": -0.78587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.662045, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108978, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.651372, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.86054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.753384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.556319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.631034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.581967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300, "relative_activity": 0.044379, "balance": 2.581967, "dry_up": 0.136834, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.326578, "annualized_volatility": 1.822092, "from_high_reference": -0.769892, "from_low_reference": 0.38961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.31661, "fair_value_reference": 0.306918, "structural_low": 0.077, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.361111, "median_excess_return": -0.003332, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.471913, "worst_return": -0.224001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009164, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.336743, "worst_return": -0.295076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.310008, "worst_return": -0.221309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.183908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.384708, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6680.0, "trend": 0.350676, "fair_value": 0.306781, "relative_strength": -15.16396, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.033804, "energy": 92.560897, "activity_lines": [ 0.380922, 0.371914, 0.36442, 0.356669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.127, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 6700.0, "trend": 0.342243, "fair_value": 0.306842, "relative_strength": -71.635074, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.375029, "energy": 55.885356, "activity_lines": [ 0.297569, 0.328455, 0.342419, 0.342238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.137, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6600.0, "trend": 0.334143, "fair_value": 0.306968, "relative_strength": -69.234769, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.986184, "energy": 95.720905, "activity_lines": [ 0.233417, 0.290958, 0.322241, 0.328997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.077, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 6745.0, "trend": 0.324043, "fair_value": 0.306859, "relative_strength": -82.425406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.270382, "energy": 96.907627, "activity_lines": [ 0.164542, 0.246608, 0.297364, 0.312407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.107, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 6760.0, "trend": 0.31661, "fair_value": 0.306918, "relative_strength": -75.33843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.501392, "energy": 92.107684, "activity_lines": [ 0.126181, 0.212675, 0.276667, 0.298404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }