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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.349, "architecture_energy": 89.013, "architecture_maturity": 22.518, "architecture_confidence": 79.42, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.65, "rotation_up": 85.04, "upward_expansion": 98.8, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 8.63, "downward_expansion": 20.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 240.703333, 232.818805, 222.692376, 218.051459 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 246.33, "trend_reference": 213.00138, "distance_from_trend": 0.156471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.331747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28745, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.875505, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.102486, "excess_performance": -0.023139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050092, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151047, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078755, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102486, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.529766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1948170, "relative_activity": 1.154123, "balance": 2.529766, "dry_up": 1.081639, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045466, "annualized_volatility": 0.198906, "from_high_reference": -0.007234, "from_low_reference": 0.401123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 213.00138, "fair_value_reference": 191.331747, "structural_low": 194.697964, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.005386, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.132281, "worst_return": -0.094283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.061811, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014245, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.198253, "worst_return": -0.06945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.132978, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.054171, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.295121, "worst_return": -0.102141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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211.453457, 209.097879, 208.405615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 231.16, "volume": 1801478, "typical_volume": 1696064.0, "trend": 207.845546, "fair_value": 188.589055, "relative_strength": 4.342923, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.757753, "energy": 74.00023, "activity_lines": [ 220.969185, 215.304558, 211.274533, 209.97328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 241.79, "volume": 1975581, "typical_volume": 1694416.9, "trend": 209.107225, "fair_value": 189.266254, "relative_strength": 10.728339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.56886, "energy": 87.370849, "activity_lines": [ 229.091261, 220.655171, 214.424208, 212.163244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 238.92, "volume": 1667283, "typical_volume": 1681571.9, "trend": 210.276873, "fair_value": 189.939907, "relative_strength": 9.936213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.382276, "energy": 86.746113, "activity_lines": [ 234.138425, 224.892162, 217.171933, 214.086649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 236.85, "volume": 1712232, "typical_volume": 1680283.2, "trend": 211.448574, "fair_value": 190.607564, "relative_strength": 7.563059, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.874296, "energy": 84.012527, "activity_lines": [ 236.574667, 228.205039, 219.566981, 215.801045 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 246.33, "volume": 1948170, "typical_volume": 1688008.5, "trend": 213.00138, "fair_value": 191.331747, "relative_strength": 7.875505, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.34928, "energy": 89.01344, "activity_lines": [ 240.703333, 232.818805, 222.692376, 218.051459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }