{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bda07c9-8c92-4800-a43c-c690fc884ba3", "symbol": "XDEV", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Value UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.278, "architecture_energy": 40.105, "architecture_maturity": 69.135, "architecture_confidence": 94.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.33, "rotation_up": 33.32, "upward_expansion": 59.95, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.85, "downward_expansion": 23.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 6062.066667, 6090.2, 5973.542857, 5753.169892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6162.0, "trend_reference": 5469.15, "distance_from_trend": 0.126683, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3980.483013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548053, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.853688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.239091, "excess_performance": 0.187856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126683, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.548053, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.138537, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.239091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.523722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84859, "relative_activity": 0.814743, "balance": 1.523722, "dry_up": 1.012867, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034609, "annualized_volatility": 0.161293, "from_high_reference": -0.02361, "from_low_reference": 0.569936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5469.15, "fair_value_reference": 3980.483013, "structural_low": 4677.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.015979, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.004159, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.085218, "worst_return": -0.022754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020192, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.007736, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.313861, "worst_return": -0.053597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.07327, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367108, "worst_return": 0.000426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }