{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bda0edb-7dc6-4fc0-83f2-2abb625c0222", "symbol": "GSBD", "name": "Goldman Sachs BDC Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.617, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.718, "architecture_energy": 21.882, "architecture_maturity": 36.437, "architecture_confidence": 76.489, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.04, "rotation_up": 40.1, "upward_expansion": 60.18, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 30.37, "downward_expansion": 18.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.043333, 9.036516, 9.004491, 8.99361 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.75, "trend_reference": 8.976207, "distance_from_trend": 0.086205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.943678, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019477, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.124697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101573, "excess_performance": -0.024052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086205, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101541, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.830133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5868755, "relative_activity": 1.061965, "balance": 0.830133, "dry_up": 0.73621, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054175, "annualized_volatility": 0.309544, "from_high_reference": -0.048922, "from_low_reference": 0.166966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.976207, "fair_value_reference": 9.943678, "structural_low": 8.355, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.021769, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.012151, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061721, "worst_return": -0.125642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064764, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.072634, "worst_return": -0.098059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040266, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179033, "worst_return": -0.064212, "sufficient": false }, { 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.912943, "energy": 19.793571, "activity_lines": [ 9.123508, 8.9794, 9.014519, 8.992657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.83, "volume": 3019802, "typical_volume": 6101692.2, "trend": 8.965417, "fair_value": 9.957532, "relative_strength": -12.197942, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.812797, "energy": 15.329338, "activity_lines": [ 9.03317, 8.967959, 8.998771, 8.98367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.66, "volume": 2853908, "typical_volume": 5818079.6, "trend": 8.955555, "fair_value": 9.950534, "relative_strength": -12.757132, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.151351, "energy": 6.620275, "activity_lines": [ 8.893385, 8.928281, 8.966291, 8.963966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.61, "volume": 4531650, "typical_volume": 5633909.85, "trend": 8.944957, "fair_value": 9.943087, "relative_strength": -13.668252, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.106329, "energy": 33.084024, "activity_lines": [ 8.76, 8.879119, 8.930646, 8.941672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.75, "volume": 5868755, "typical_volume": 5526318.7, "trend": 8.976207, "fair_value": 9.943678, "relative_strength": -5.124697, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.718157, "energy": 21.882366, "activity_lines": [ 9.043333, 9.036516, 9.004491, 8.99361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }