{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bdceffd-25ba-4482-a4b8-51e12b614857", "symbol": "688138", "name": "Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.029, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.312, "architecture_energy": 20.0, "architecture_maturity": 59.191, "architecture_confidence": 76.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.25, "rotation_up": 17.58, "upward_expansion": 25.31, "deceleration": 73.32, "rotation_down": 55.55, "downward_expansion": 31.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.383333, 34.662257, 34.293329, 33.122982 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.049999, "trend_reference": 31.973658, "distance_from_trend": 0.002388, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.133061, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275213, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.214819, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048757, "excess_performance": 0.09196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002388, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275213, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042148, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018237, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42640013, "relative_activity": 1.089431, "balance": 1.218868, "dry_up": 1.641908, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210919, "annualized_volatility": 0.612417, "from_high_reference": -0.36295, "from_low_reference": 0.266798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.973658, "fair_value_reference": 25.133061, "structural_low": 25.299999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026168, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026536, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.177957, "worst_return": -0.099691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059994, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049595, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.381543, "worst_return": -0.124164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.126721, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.193336, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.468969, "worst_return": -0.204926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048334, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"volume": 85807644, "typical_volume": 30598030.25, "trend": 31.645992, "fair_value": 24.876554, "relative_strength": 40.567561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.011249, "energy": 85.125482, "activity_lines": [ 41.986256, 38.715704, 35.020848, 33.396249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.540001, "volume": 100630239, "typical_volume": 34381940.9, "trend": 31.797325, "fair_value": 24.958473, "relative_strength": 13.936564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.376783, "energy": 47.227543, "activity_lines": [ 39.622777, 38.169047, 35.111944, 33.518443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.74, "volume": 64036717, "typical_volume": 36123499.05, "trend": 31.878325, "fair_value": 25.013763, "relative_strength": -0.334734, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.807305, "energy": 17.877036, "activity_lines": [ 36.106, 36.908884, 34.835184, 33.385712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.6, "volume": 49748389, "typical_volume": 37747522.3, "trend": 31.843992, "fair_value": 25.054705, "relative_strength": -7.731093, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.565803, "energy": 16.207178, "activity_lines": [ 32.504667, 35.325534, 34.350566, 33.109691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.049999, "volume": 42640013, "typical_volume": 39139720.6, "trend": 31.973658, "fair_value": 25.133061, "relative_strength": 4.214819, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.312186, "energy": 20.000288, "activity_lines": [ 31.383333, 34.662257, 34.293329, 33.122982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }