{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bdd6b6b-c297-435f-bc46-8bccb402c453", "symbol": "NSM", "name": "North Stawell Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.065, "architecture_energy": 72.301, "architecture_maturity": 75.855, "architecture_confidence": 91.861, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.39, "rotation_up": 11.81, "upward_expansion": 16.7, "deceleration": 37.79, "rotation_down": 69.6, "downward_expansion": 90.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0208, 0.022145, 0.024026, 0.02534 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.027033, "distance_from_trend": -0.223181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.032143, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.346679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.109597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.363706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.346679, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100000, "relative_activity": 0.45836, "balance": 0.225816, "dry_up": 0.542755, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14652, "annualized_volatility": 0.709153, "from_high_reference": -0.475, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027033, "fair_value_reference": 0.032143, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.038406, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.062532, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 1.93501, "worst_return": -0.645161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.154704, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.151105, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.642854, "worst_return": -0.625004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.261905, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.299229, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.673469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.124095, "energy": 43.443826, "activity_lines": [ 0.024133, 0.025045, 0.02624, 0.027194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.021, "volume": 172874, "typical_volume": 266524.9, "trend": 0.028133, "fair_value": 0.03324, "relative_strength": -31.175054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.485064, "energy": 63.342776, "activity_lines": [ 0.023, 0.024218, 0.025643, 0.026723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 110110, "typical_volume": 223320.1, "trend": 0.027867, "fair_value": 0.032833, "relative_strength": -33.580075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.229395, "energy": 78.103187, "activity_lines": [ 0.0216, 0.023336, 0.024998, 0.026198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 90665, "typical_volume": 223143.9, "trend": 0.027433, "fair_value": 0.032437, "relative_strength": -31.415942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.093564, "energy": 74.881576, "activity_lines": [ 0.020933, 0.022691, 0.02449, 0.025755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 100000, "typical_volume": 218168.9, "trend": 0.027033, "fair_value": 0.032143, "relative_strength": -33.109597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.065206, "energy": 72.300712, "activity_lines": [ 0.0208, 0.022145, 0.024026, 0.02534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }