{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bde1270-3ebc-4d25-91f6-29bacad701ca", "symbol": "301297", "name": "Ferrotec (An Hui) Technology Development Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.785, "architecture_energy": 48.328, "architecture_maturity": 13.416, "architecture_confidence": 81.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.54, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 24.37, "deceleration": 52.66, "rotation_down": 67.3, "downward_expansion": 47.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.610076, 39.14883, 41.85507, 41.280506 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.849998, "trend_reference": 40.650813, "distance_from_trend": -0.142699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.806197, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.787951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.1574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074063, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107052176, "relative_activity": 1.476213, "balance": 0.643875, "dry_up": 1.427812, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202727, "annualized_volatility": 0.742856, "from_high_reference": -0.394334, "from_low_reference": 0.243876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.650813, "fair_value_reference": 33.806197, "structural_low": 28.017251, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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11.668072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.912013, "energy": 61.150162, "activity_lines": [ 50.762144, 48.790078, 44.96647, 43.022851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.226471, "volume": 99868603, "typical_volume": 56518207.55, "trend": 41.115745, "fair_value": 33.54838, "relative_strength": 2.458953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.19697, "energy": 54.164227, "activity_lines": [ 49.924139, 48.509574, 45.360265, 43.373128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.231098, "volume": 91528508, "typical_volume": 60052584.85, "trend": 41.041204, "fair_value": 33.631595, "relative_strength": -13.604007, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.10049, "energy": 12.111407, "activity_lines": [ 45.155912, 46.174885, 44.67828, 42.993473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.639139, "volume": 98812224, "typical_volume": 63379385.85, "trend": 40.89347, "fair_value": 33.688173, "relative_strength": -22.032384, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.295763, "energy": 29.395432, "activity_lines": [ 39.769625, 43.364001, 43.67715, 42.386888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.573765, "volume": 116775935, "typical_volume": 68243991.55, "trend": 40.679218, "fair_value": 33.725935, "relative_strength": -25.301555, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.169398, "energy": 44.387162, "activity_lines": [ 35.00427, 40.587429, 42.502084, 41.656585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.849998, "volume": 107052176, "typical_volume": 72518106.9, "trend": 40.650813, "fair_value": 33.806197, "relative_strength": -15.787951, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.784578, "energy": 48.327787, "activity_lines": [ 33.610076, 39.14883, 41.85507, 41.280506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }