{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9be35810-c382-4e18-b8e0-119a2beb3b91", "symbol": "ANGEN", "name": "Anatolia Tani ve Biyoteknoloji \u00dcr\u00fcnleri Ar-Ge Sanayi Ticaret A.S.", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.104, "architecture_energy": 85.699, "architecture_maturity": 31.288, "architecture_confidence": 92.767, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 21.71, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 63.59, "downward_expansion": 94.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.026, 9.215455, 9.796762, 10.165871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.93, "trend_reference": 10.49, "distance_from_trend": -0.148713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.414359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.508095, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130477, "excess_performance": -0.23545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148713, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055097, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12178, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5689711, "relative_activity": 0.298769, "balance": 1.023197, "dry_up": 0.41151, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049358, "annualized_volatility": 0.390765, "from_high_reference": -0.441875, "from_low_reference": 0.026437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.49, "fair_value_reference": 12.414359, "structural_low": 8.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.021918, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02253, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.209432, "worst_return": -0.144953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010959, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.164455, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.210256, "worst_return": -0.152206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.248254, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146335, "worst_return": -0.215441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210411, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.380913, "energy": 84.728976, "activity_lines": [ 9.374, 9.782, 10.39519, 10.581634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 9.36, "volume": 11524023, "typical_volume": 19342883.1, "trend": 10.74, "fair_value": 12.609615, "relative_strength": -27.797747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.152092, "energy": 88.01789, "activity_lines": [ 9.295333, 9.649636, 10.261286, 10.488538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 9.28, "volume": 6892145, "typical_volume": 19153104.55, "trend": 10.661, "fair_value": 12.549231, "relative_strength": -28.324477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.636256, "energy": 87.08275, "activity_lines": [ 9.248667, 9.53, 10.124905, 10.394344 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 8.77, "volume": 7241100, "typical_volume": 19141809.6, "trend": 10.580333, "fair_value": 12.479808, "relative_strength": -28.319045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.125638, "energy": 91.491772, "activity_lines": [ 9.09, 9.34, 9.947333, 10.272344 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 8.93, "volume": 5689711, "typical_volume": 19043877.85, "trend": 10.49, "fair_value": 12.414359, "relative_strength": -28.508095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.104054, "energy": 85.698837, "activity_lines": [ 9.026, 9.215455, 9.796762, 10.165871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }