{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9be525ed-0817-4765-9282-8b64f02a8f1a", "symbol": "DOUG", "name": "Douglas Elliman Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.481, "architecture_energy": 27.992, "architecture_maturity": 15.848, "architecture_confidence": 93.319, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.71, "rotation_up": 19.4, "upward_expansion": 4.59, "deceleration": 47.68, "rotation_down": 46.17, "downward_expansion": 70.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.764, 1.793818, 1.802762, 1.845398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.78, "trend_reference": 1.986, "distance_from_trend": -0.103726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.036474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.090268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.343173, "excess_performance": -0.468798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.343173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1474955, "relative_activity": 0.660627, "balance": 0.763924, "dry_up": 0.682522, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110454, "annualized_volatility": 0.691727, "from_high_reference": -0.442006, "from_low_reference": 0.163399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.986, "fair_value_reference": 2.036474, "structural_low": 1.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.06199, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.026464, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.262443, "worst_return": -0.248908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.093117, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.075616, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.413174, "worst_return": -0.274074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.206478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.269087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388235, "worst_return": -0.251101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072874, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040936, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.04, "volume": 3609742, "typical_volume": 4323244.8, "trend": 2.930631, "fair_value": 4.368716, "relative_strength": -44.550115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.882667, 1.833818, 1.825, 1.904344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.71, "volume": 1386350, "typical_volume": 2852921.45, "trend": 2.030333, "fair_value": 2.042692, "relative_strength": -30.705858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.925849, "energy": 16.399051, "activity_lines": [ 1.834667, 1.818182, 1.814143, 1.882237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.69, "volume": 1022894, "typical_volume": 2511551.1, "trend": 2.010667, "fair_value": 2.040128, "relative_strength": -31.793344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.320118, "energy": 27.653556, "activity_lines": [ 1.780667, 1.796545, 1.804143, 1.86028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.78, "volume": 1474955, "typical_volume": 2232660.7, "trend": 1.986, "fair_value": 2.036474, "relative_strength": -30.090268, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.48138, "energy": 27.991939, "activity_lines": [ 1.764, 1.793818, 1.802762, 1.845398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }