{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9be96564-9319-419a-9eb5-a0abfe110f0e", "symbol": "9929", "name": "Choice Development, Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.204, "architecture_energy": 3.569, "architecture_maturity": 30.316, "architecture_confidence": 74.948, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.43, "rotation_up": 29.03, "upward_expansion": 26.32, "deceleration": 44.88, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.436667, 11.400909, 11.482381, 11.533871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.4, "trend_reference": 11.43, "distance_from_trend": -0.002625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.278205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.447398, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090909, "excess_performance": -0.350463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33783, "relative_activity": 0.257354, "balance": 1.250096, "dry_up": 0.503889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077935, "annualized_volatility": 0.77862, "from_high_reference": -0.24, "from_low_reference": 0.151515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.43, "fair_value_reference": 14.278205, "structural_low": 9.99, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.003125, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.020711, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.114035, "worst_return": -0.102362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030145, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.004569, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.07438, "worst_return": -0.120915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077208, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.067496, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022472, "worst_return": -0.225352, "sufficient": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047022, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.430524, "energy": 17.016349, "activity_lines": [ 11.28, 11.386364, 11.592143, 11.511505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.5, "volume": 70063, "typical_volume": 204853.5, "trend": 11.35, "fair_value": 14.254487, "relative_strength": -30.059968, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.340852, "energy": 15.704011, "activity_lines": [ 11.293333, 11.400909, 11.572381, 11.522258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.45, "volume": 113001, "typical_volume": 206428.55, "trend": 11.371667, "fair_value": 14.263782, "relative_strength": -28.262119, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.822625, "energy": 7.903484, "activity_lines": [ 11.37, 11.405455, 11.542619, 11.52871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.45, "volume": 47736, "typical_volume": 145958.55, "trend": 11.398333, "fair_value": 14.271154, "relative_strength": -28.836391, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.46821, "energy": 6.203106, "activity_lines": [ 11.42, 11.409091, 11.506429, 11.533763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.4, "volume": 33783, "typical_volume": 131270.5, "trend": 11.43, "fair_value": 14.278205, "relative_strength": -30.447398, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.204417, "energy": 3.568841, "activity_lines": [ 11.436667, 11.400909, 11.482381, 11.533871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }