{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bebd173-2d7c-4592-a0cb-dfad62502c4a", "symbol": "SGOO", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Alphabet ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.647, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.203, "architecture_energy": 19.895, "architecture_maturity": 34.155, "architecture_confidence": 72.285, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.06, "rotation_up": 28.19, "upward_expansion": 20.33, "deceleration": 43.58, "rotation_down": 30.04, "downward_expansion": 56.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.885467, 1.8876, 1.865217, 1.926687 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.807, "trend_reference": 1.9958, "distance_from_trend": -0.094599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.01414, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.549841, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.705448, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136027, "excess_performance": -0.187262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.549841, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175072, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 37.823529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9, "relative_activity": 0.045883, "balance": 37.823529, "dry_up": 0.465205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06196, "annualized_volatility": 0.387648, "from_high_reference": -0.495092, "from_low_reference": 0.105199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.9958, "fair_value_reference": 4.01414, "structural_low": 1.635, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.018013, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.010368, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.147192, "worst_return": -0.161395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.130998, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.169442, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.245742, "worst_return": -0.285326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.15697, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.211832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307347, "worst_return": -0.41086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25389, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.367811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.468933, "worst_return": -0.379259, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.201926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033656, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035149, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.397627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130845, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031359, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.265, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 374.0, "trend": 7.370625, "fair_value": 8.415224, "relative_strength": -21.618725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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1.826864, 1.900802, 1.967486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.871, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 199.8, "trend": 2.0301, "fair_value": 4.124461, "relative_strength": -27.767707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.514828, "energy": 27.531879, "activity_lines": [ 1.879867, 1.8421, 1.888467, 1.95644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.891, "volume": 198, "typical_volume": 209.7, "trend": 2.0186, "fair_value": 4.094427, "relative_strength": -26.307914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.556949, "energy": 25.14592, "activity_lines": [ 1.886267, 1.858309, 1.879386, 1.947466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.044, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 217.2, "trend": 2.015367, "fair_value": 4.069541, "relative_strength": -20.039724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.893464, "energy": 13.251046, "activity_lines": [ 1.9391, 1.898145, 1.886374, 1.949104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8655, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 213.2, "trend": 2.0046, "fair_value": 4.042341, "relative_strength": -26.461174, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.533436, "energy": 16.484256, "activity_lines": [ 1.918633, 1.899364, 1.877583, 1.939435 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.807, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 196.15, "trend": 1.9958, "fair_value": 4.01414, "relative_strength": -27.705448, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.203283, "energy": 19.895111, "activity_lines": [ 1.885467, 1.8876, 1.865217, 1.926687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }