{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9beeff25-76b9-44e6-a814-c51a0f4ee25d", "symbol": "ARCB", "name": "ArcBest Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.898, "architecture_energy": 33.873, "architecture_maturity": 78.447, "architecture_confidence": 68.757, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.79, "rotation_up": 40.53, "upward_expansion": 70.26, "deceleration": 64.43, "rotation_down": 25.76, "downward_expansion": 11.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.302559, 147.751187, 142.450002, 133.104981 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 137.76, "trend_reference": 121.097519, "distance_from_trend": 0.137596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.081955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362855, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.067719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233054, "excess_performance": 0.0456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.271846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115526, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.220677, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233054, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1747083, "relative_activity": 0.972704, "balance": 1.461338, "dry_up": 1.089997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110249, "annualized_volatility": 0.526836, "from_high_reference": -0.22031, "from_low_reference": 1.322946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.097519, "fair_value_reference": 101.081955, "structural_low": 82.658005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.040201, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.053014, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.410154, "worst_return": -0.233669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041015, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.059867, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.367513, "worst_return": -0.19824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070201, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039178, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.722717, "worst_return": -0.207371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 1817690.3, "trend": 119.418331, "fair_value": 100.882954, "relative_strength": 35.424936, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.76154, "energy": 44.177765, "activity_lines": [ 150.023318, 149.981212, 141.82406, 131.921647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.76, "volume": 1747083, "typical_volume": 1796109.35, "trend": 121.097519, "fair_value": 101.081955, "relative_strength": 22.067719, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.897928, "energy": 33.873176, "activity_lines": [ 146.302559, 147.751187, 142.450002, 133.104981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }