{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bf54f5f-5947-4765-8246-c5c4da9f72c4", "symbol": "TRIP", "name": "TripAdvisor Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.472, "architecture_energy": 18.333, "architecture_maturity": 51.348, "architecture_confidence": 64.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.34, "rotation_up": 34.0, "upward_expansion": 66.94, "deceleration": 82.45, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 16.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.986667, 13.325273, 12.593238, 12.076925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.78, "trend_reference": 11.726333, "distance_from_trend": -0.080702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.088237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.329945, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.713264, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.155834, "excess_performance": -0.343288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.329945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086877, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.261724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29809667, "relative_activity": 1.633995, "balance": 2.261724, "dry_up": 0.95607, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153653, "annualized_volatility": 0.716826, "from_high_reference": -0.465278, "from_low_reference": 0.196448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.726333, "fair_value_reference": 16.088237, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006243, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.026534, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.258406, "worst_return": -0.277157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.145948, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.1591, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.500552, "worst_return": -0.324374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010668, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.146454, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.013812, "worst_return": -0.454597, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"relative_strength": -14.075005, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.872856, "energy": 70.804344, "activity_lines": [ 13.778667, 12.860636, 11.939405, 11.706957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.58, "volume": 16052623, "typical_volume": 18443017.55, "trend": 11.888833, "fair_value": 16.166538, "relative_strength": -5.660861, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.201476, "energy": 72.45758, "activity_lines": [ 14.145, 13.321818, 12.25381, 11.882108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.7, "volume": 10661298, "typical_volume": 18079319.35, "trend": 11.876167, "fair_value": 16.138269, "relative_strength": -9.006939, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.613519, "energy": 67.528764, "activity_lines": [ 14.073333, 13.547909, 12.463119, 11.998957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.165, "volume": 13244398, "typical_volume": 17803375.85, "trend": 11.860333, "fair_value": 16.124199, "relative_strength": -5.708713, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.046168, "energy": 51.421563, "activity_lines": [ 14.107667, 13.781455, 12.701095, 12.146624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.78, "volume": 29809667, "typical_volume": 18243430.7, "trend": 11.726333, "fair_value": 16.088237, "relative_strength": -30.713264, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.47185, "energy": 18.332628, "activity_lines": [ 12.986667, 13.325273, 12.593238, 12.076925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }