{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bf7a349-158e-4e48-9356-c9855c421909", "symbol": "SRG", "name": "Seritage Growth Properties", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.594, "architecture_energy": 58.488, "architecture_maturity": 14.259, "architecture_confidence": 83.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.47, "rotation_up": 12.45, "upward_expansion": 11.79, "deceleration": 39.38, "rotation_down": 65.05, "downward_expansion": 85.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.437333, 2.516, 2.558381, 2.623978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 2.776, "distance_from_trend": -0.128242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.915641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.507694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.107081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234177, "excess_performance": -0.359802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.507694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.398075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 408429, "relative_activity": 0.315984, "balance": 2.398075, "dry_up": 0.682354, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086936, "annualized_volatility": 0.314469, "from_high_reference": -0.469298, "from_low_reference": 0.061404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.776, "fair_value_reference": 4.915641, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.008844, "positive_rate": 0.425, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.02669, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.579251, "worst_return": -0.275385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.019355, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.091596, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.682692, "worst_return": -0.435928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.084352, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.14176, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.326241, "worst_return": -0.417079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.177371, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.300344, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.171149, "worst_return": -0.463878, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084691, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.446768, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191748, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.16879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004149, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.95, "volume": 3523373, "typical_volume": 2047949.8, "trend": 9.176, "fair_value": 12.826154, "relative_strength": -27.730342, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", 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2.641333, 2.624545, 2.633952, 2.73114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.64, "volume": 411122, "typical_volume": 1294110.25, "trend": 2.879667, "fair_value": 5.045513, "relative_strength": -25.697993, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.163194, "energy": 15.234526, "activity_lines": [ 2.64, 2.630909, 2.630571, 2.714086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.31, "volume": 1831743, "typical_volume": 1341198.1, "trend": 2.845, "fair_value": 5.000769, "relative_strength": -34.050517, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.59621, "energy": 43.102917, "activity_lines": [ 2.528, 2.578364, 2.597286, 2.677333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.41, "volume": 876642, "typical_volume": 1325681.9, "trend": 2.812, "fair_value": 4.957179, "relative_strength": -31.445812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.137825, "energy": 54.524741, "activity_lines": [ 2.472667, 2.545818, 2.576333, 2.649269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 408429, "typical_volume": 1292561.1, "trend": 2.776, "fair_value": 4.915641, "relative_strength": -33.107081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.594425, "energy": 58.48836, "activity_lines": [ 2.437333, 2.516, 2.558381, 2.623978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }