{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bf80be9-cbff-468a-b9dc-609e05be59d2", "symbol": "IPX", "name": "IperionX Limited American Depositary Share", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.254, "architecture_energy": 67.111, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.659, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.21, "rotation_up": 11.46, "upward_expansion": 14.03, "deceleration": 39.99, "rotation_down": 72.58, "downward_expansion": 89.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.936, 24.930909, 28.969429, 30.893204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.09, "trend_reference": 34.797333, "distance_from_trend": -0.278968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.967654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.622988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417865, "excess_performance": -0.605319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.278968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.781668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417865, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1224373, "relative_activity": 0.890311, "balance": 0.390459, "dry_up": 1.041109, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226748, "annualized_volatility": 1.063092, "from_high_reference": -0.591701, "from_low_reference": 0.24888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.797333, "fair_value_reference": 24.967654, "structural_low": 20.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.246797, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.114431, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.56962, "worst_return": -0.279013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.69791, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.459489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.251112, "worst_return": 0.144708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.714677, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 2.414423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.714677, "worst_return": 2.714677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.182005, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.830763, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 1.182005, "worst_return": 1.182005, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.614095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.30547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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33.089818, 33.356524, 35.206602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.03, "volume": 1986035, "typical_volume": 1427222.35, "trend": 36.910333, "fair_value": 24.57477, "relative_strength": -45.33322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.234169, "energy": 72.81111, "activity_lines": [ 27.858667, 31.324, 32.464905, 34.417247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.94, "volume": 1642049, "typical_volume": 1469149.25, "trend": 36.572333, "fair_value": 24.672526, "relative_strength": -47.279657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.789437, "energy": 76.779427, "activity_lines": [ 25.679333, 29.331455, 31.456143, 33.515935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.56, "volume": 1560282, "typical_volume": 1504028.35, "trend": 36.059333, "fair_value": 24.762783, "relative_strength": -49.024126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.452379, "energy": 76.946478, "activity_lines": [ 23.914, 27.420182, 30.438286, 32.547398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.75, "volume": 1300305, "typical_volume": 1496148.65, "trend": 35.420667, "fair_value": 24.849834, "relative_strength": -50.618981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.345129, "energy": 77.592784, "activity_lines": [ 22.51, 25.627636, 29.463571, 31.559699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.09, "volume": 1224373, "typical_volume": 1375219.05, "trend": 34.797333, "fair_value": 24.967654, "relative_strength": -42.622988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.253695, "energy": 67.111226, "activity_lines": [ 22.936, 24.930909, 28.969429, 30.893204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }