{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bfa9aa8-c5e1-4614-adb3-c0b5f88f98cb", "symbol": "TPVG", "name": "Triplepoint Venture Growth BDC Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.919, "architecture_energy": 28.633, "architecture_maturity": 11.468, "architecture_confidence": 93.62, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.09, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 5.22, "deceleration": 47.55, "rotation_down": 53.77, "downward_expansion": 78.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.772, 4.796937, 4.962283, 4.982612 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.070323, "distance_from_trend": 0.025576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.829605, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.621417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010583, "excess_performance": -0.136207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.737926, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1586660, "relative_activity": 1.004983, "balance": 0.737926, "dry_up": 0.730667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076526, "annualized_volatility": 0.430235, "from_high_reference": -0.160095, "from_low_reference": 0.212754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.070323, "fair_value_reference": 5.829605, "structural_low": 4.287761, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.028526, "positive_rate": 0.68, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": -0.005481, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.223388, "worst_return": -0.147933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034512, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.016891, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.158597, "worst_return": -0.183326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.036013, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.152225, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.032817, "worst_return": -0.116186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 929328, "typical_volume": 1843457.6, "trend": 5.152342, "fair_value": 5.856685, "relative_strength": -22.016904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.800804, "energy": 66.315187, "activity_lines": [ 4.654667, 4.81784, 4.986809, 5.016957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.52, "volume": 1011935, "typical_volume": 1738622.5, "trend": 5.099999, "fair_value": 5.840591, "relative_strength": -20.813926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.696724, "energy": 66.702246, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 4.738459, 4.941811, 4.97616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 1586660, "typical_volume": 1578793.15, "trend": 5.070323, "fair_value": 5.829605, "relative_strength": -11.621417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.918526, "energy": 28.63273, "activity_lines": [ 4.772, 4.796937, 4.962283, 4.982612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }