{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c01025f-f8de-4ca6-bfac-96cbb99b3a19", "symbol": "TLYS", "name": "Tillys Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.74, "architecture_energy": 12.256, "architecture_maturity": 46.05, "architecture_confidence": 66.875, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.49, "rotation_up": 19.24, "upward_expansion": 40.65, "deceleration": 82.7, "rotation_down": 32.64, "downward_expansion": 32.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.969333, 4.076545, 4.253905, 4.032882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.19, "trend_reference": 3.506, "distance_from_trend": 0.195094, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.306007, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026941, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 38.112269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.909722, "excess_performance": 1.784097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.195094, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.336637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051619, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.381123, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.503127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.909722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.114683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700707, "relative_activity": 0.436312, "balance": 2.114683, "dry_up": 0.407217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17199, "annualized_volatility": 1.120236, "from_high_reference": -0.289831, "from_low_reference": 2.675439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.506, "fair_value_reference": 4.306007, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.024, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.041262, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.065977, "worst_return": -0.14071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108142, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.189829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023301, "worst_return": -0.194667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.170213, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.308857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.114281, "worst_return": -0.170763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 5097877.25, "trend": 3.362, "fair_value": 4.369533, "relative_strength": 33.687815, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.748462, "energy": 14.801899, "activity_lines": [ 3.935333, 4.201455, 4.308952, 3.954409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.81, "volume": 484815, "typical_volume": 1857208.75, "trend": 3.421667, "fair_value": 4.336328, "relative_strength": 32.086727, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.954217, "energy": 14.471814, "activity_lines": [ 3.879333, 4.099636, 4.266, 3.983312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.19, "volume": 700707, "typical_volume": 1605978.0, "trend": 3.506, "fair_value": 4.306007, "relative_strength": 38.112269, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.740496, "energy": 12.256101, "activity_lines": [ 3.969333, 4.076545, 4.253905, 4.032882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }