{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c0969e5-1ebc-4132-a27b-365ec5fa8ee7", "symbol": "SLL", "name": "SBO AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.983, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.361, "architecture_energy": 55.835, "architecture_maturity": 14.486, "architecture_confidence": 84.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.01, "rotation_up": 19.46, "upward_expansion": 8.35, "deceleration": 49.9, "rotation_down": 59.03, "downward_expansion": 79.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.796667, 30.231818, 31.778009, 32.539579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.5, "trend_reference": 33.04651, "distance_from_trend": -0.137579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.169413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.782424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11963, "excess_performance": -0.18427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036391, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140775, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3461, "relative_activity": 1.323012, "balance": 1.597955, "dry_up": 0.983276, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062888, "annualized_volatility": 0.290479, "from_high_reference": -0.227192, "from_low_reference": 0.123407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.04651, "fair_value_reference": 33.169413, "structural_low": 28.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.007435, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.012967, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.222045, "worst_return": -0.131761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.018378, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.002921, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.632588, "worst_return": -0.225892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062081, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.135505, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.222403, "worst_return": -0.217966, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 33.532482, "relative_strength": -0.416596, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.585113, "energy": 68.607624, "activity_lines": [ 30.373333, 31.448182, 32.841095, 33.168121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.450001, "volume": 2513, "typical_volume": 2652.35, "trend": 33.041278, "fair_value": 33.430386, "relative_strength": -0.456221, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.515232, "energy": 51.550227, "activity_lines": [ 30.743334, 31.285455, 32.631627, 33.076429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.35, "volume": 1451, "typical_volume": 2511.2, "trend": 33.129891, "fair_value": 33.304611, "relative_strength": -8.966117, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.884983, "energy": 49.935901, "activity_lines": [ 30.426667, 30.79, 32.230984, 32.838282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.5, "volume": 3461, "typical_volume": 2616.0, "trend": 33.04651, "fair_value": 33.169413, "relative_strength": -13.782424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.360728, "energy": 55.835006, "activity_lines": [ 29.796667, 30.231818, 31.778009, 32.539579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }