{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c09791c-5227-44f1-9512-6ad4843e21d5", "symbol": "XOM", "name": "Exxon Mobil Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.931, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.772, "architecture_energy": 40.264, "architecture_maturity": 11.65, "architecture_confidence": 41.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.9, "rotation_up": 67.22, "upward_expansion": 68.72, "deceleration": 57.58, "rotation_down": 11.61, "downward_expansion": 14.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.942668, 128.928728, 128.070512, 128.472239 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 132.559998, "trend_reference": 127.284253, "distance_from_trend": 0.041449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.577508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305013, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.703122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071636, "excess_performance": -0.102611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305013, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060637, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038327, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071636, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 724, "relative_activity": 0.422293, "balance": 0.307645, "dry_up": 0.514742, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053831, "annualized_volatility": 0.339892, "from_high_reference": -0.125335, "from_low_reference": 0.521749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.284253, "fair_value_reference": 101.577508, "structural_low": 118.720001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.027022, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.006349, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.113607, "worst_return": -0.122464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010569, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060085, "worst_return": -0.102905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.228874, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090838, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.49866, "worst_return": -0.073995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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126.275942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.300003, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 2069.45, "trend": 122.944037, "fair_value": 100.377392, "relative_strength": -11.006392, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.40325, "energy": 46.21067, "activity_lines": [ 120.429333, 123.351515, 126.294194, 126.15023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 129.580002, "volume": 565, "typical_volume": 2066.55, "trend": 123.983628, "fair_value": 100.67231, "relative_strength": -2.354104, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.763006, "energy": 23.515857, "activity_lines": [ 123.128001, 124.151637, 126.385053, 126.578357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.639999, "volume": 1646, "typical_volume": 1891.05, "trend": 125.249905, "fair_value": 101.015054, "relative_strength": 2.109403, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.384444, "energy": 23.18186, "activity_lines": [ 128.408001, 126.281091, 127.22583, 127.459413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.740005, "volume": 595, "typical_volume": 1797.75, "trend": 126.351296, "fair_value": 101.312898, "relative_strength": -0.102547, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.328365, "energy": 35.894493, "activity_lines": [ 131.546669, 127.81891, 127.752002, 128.071678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.559998, "volume": 724, "typical_volume": 1714.45, "trend": 127.284253, "fair_value": 101.577508, "relative_strength": -4.703122, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.772457, "energy": 40.263695, "activity_lines": [ 132.942668, 128.928728, 128.070512, 128.472239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }