{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c0f6859-3bb7-408c-bd7d-964f21e39a4e", "symbol": "ICICIGI", "name": "ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.036, "architecture_energy": 69.741, "architecture_maturity": 10.806, "architecture_confidence": 82.738, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.29, "rotation_up": 11.62, "upward_expansion": 17.49, "deceleration": 34.32, "rotation_down": 74.88, "downward_expansion": 90.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 1649.266667, 1699.056359, 1739.216635, 1761.220051 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1639.0, "trend_reference": 1791.41543, "distance_from_trend": -0.085081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1766.650289, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.799923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119575, "excess_performance": -0.075865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.594191, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6610409, "relative_activity": 1.727583, "balance": 0.594191, "dry_up": 2.300211, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067292, "annualized_volatility": 0.306333, "from_high_reference": -0.206257, "from_low_reference": 0.061116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1791.41543, "fair_value_reference": 1766.650289, "structural_low": 1544.599976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.007574, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.015587, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.149932, "worst_return": -0.137907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.038122, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016059, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.231247, "worst_return": -0.127717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024848, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024488, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122277, "worst_return": -0.221439, "sufficient": 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1706.373332, 1742.538031, 1765.271998, 1783.512579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1627.0, "volume": 2868010, "typical_volume": 3662104.0, "trend": 1799.985429, "fair_value": 1764.779775, "relative_strength": -11.021122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.614998, "energy": 66.822633, "activity_lines": [ 1669.6, 1717.958174, 1751.17265, 1771.606208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1639.0, "volume": 6610409, "typical_volume": 3826391.6, "trend": 1791.41543, "fair_value": 1766.650289, "relative_strength": -10.799923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.036415, "energy": 69.741233, "activity_lines": [ 1649.266667, 1699.056359, 1739.216635, 1761.220051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }