{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c114254-e763-4359-a2dd-9529b8adabe6", "symbol": "YUM", "name": "Yum! Brands Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 61.035, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.663, "architecture_energy": 32.183, "architecture_maturity": 15.264, "architecture_confidence": 78.386, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.4, "rotation_up": 16.17, "upward_expansion": 6.68, "deceleration": 49.18, "rotation_down": 58.27, "downward_expansion": 73.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 151.537333, 153.816545, 154.029411, 154.977831 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 150.76, "trend_reference": 156.10451, "distance_from_trend": -0.034237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 138.328317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.701427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06586, "excess_performance": -0.191485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.03624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12614914, "relative_activity": 1.223351, "balance": 1.03624, "dry_up": 1.363797, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061687, "annualized_volatility": 0.233931, "from_high_reference": -0.113906, "from_low_reference": 0.113606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.10451, "fair_value_reference": 138.328317, "structural_low": 144.64, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.003289, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.008247, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.10853, "worst_return": -0.082819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.061113, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.006166, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.157313, "worst_return": -0.065766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055688, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.062332, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.164445, "worst_return": -0.012987, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022801, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012356, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 121.860634, "volume": 7706429, "typical_volume": 7875737.85, "trend": 125.378499, "fair_value": 110.693311, "relative_strength": -5.93203, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"close": 163.54, "volume": 12991687, "typical_volume": 9416179.25, "trend": 156.315255, "fair_value": 137.761777, "relative_strength": -2.865578, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.66375, "energy": 30.933527, "activity_lines": [ 160.276, 156.69139, 156.111291, 156.519282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 147.92, "volume": 18474200, "typical_volume": 9826324.15, "trend": 156.169393, "fair_value": 137.877885, "relative_strength": -10.483752, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.135057, "energy": 14.14147, "activity_lines": [ 156.850667, 155.501825, 155.270387, 155.977653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 148.92, "volume": 12423201, "typical_volume": 10006066.9, "trend": 156.073704, "fair_value": 138.004032, "relative_strength": -9.135774, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.774718, "energy": 21.431919, "activity_lines": [ 154.184667, 154.553788, 154.61717, 155.50995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.28, "volume": 12740347, "typical_volume": 10271489.35, "trend": 156.214147, "fair_value": 138.173798, "relative_strength": -7.274818, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.559842, "energy": 21.600341, "activity_lines": [ 153.176667, 154.404182, 154.428213, 155.329711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.76, "volume": 12614914, "typical_volume": 10311770.75, "trend": 156.10451, "fair_value": 138.328317, "relative_strength": -11.701427, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.662509, "energy": 32.182565, "activity_lines": [ 151.537333, 153.816545, 154.029411, 154.977831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }