{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c151d33-065a-46d2-a1ff-c7ea6b847ee0", "symbol": "SANO", "name": "Sanofi", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.285, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.491, "architecture_energy": 17.696, "architecture_maturity": 35.116, "architecture_confidence": 55.761, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.12, "rotation_up": 44.89, "upward_expansion": 73.61, "deceleration": 57.03, "rotation_down": 20.45, "downward_expansion": 2.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.845998, 75.809999, 75.782459, 75.684934 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 76.25, "trend_reference": 75.546973, "distance_from_trend": 0.009306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.856994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.235289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000648, "excess_performance": -0.174895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009306, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018534, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047349, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017327, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1118, "relative_activity": 0.719619, "balance": 0.828839, "dry_up": 2.029963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042008, "annualized_volatility": 0.208138, "from_high_reference": -0.111871, "from_low_reference": 0.073856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.546973, "fair_value_reference": 81.856994, "structural_low": 71.005766, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.004491, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.028554, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059974, "worst_return": -0.164514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067048, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102386, "worst_return": -0.098093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107394, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.161472, "worst_return": -0.128331, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039121, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", 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-19.077288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.370392, "energy": 17.790909, "activity_lines": [ 76.313998, 76.049272, 75.876322, 75.741058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.339996, "volume": 8776, "typical_volume": 1515.3, "trend": 75.6711, "fair_value": 81.908781, "relative_strength": -20.388071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.528497, "energy": 4.653293, "activity_lines": [ 75.741331, 75.732726, 75.742092, 75.647585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.25, "volume": 1118, "typical_volume": 1553.6, "trend": 75.546973, "fair_value": 81.856994, "relative_strength": -20.235289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.491035, "energy": 17.695821, "activity_lines": [ 75.845998, 75.809999, 75.782459, 75.684934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }