{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c1a50d6-60d1-4f26-b0e8-8a5f18dc3118", "symbol": "688408", "name": "Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.699, "architecture_energy": 78.524, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.859, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 17.84, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 39.72, "rotation_down": 66.4, "downward_expansion": 91.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.194667, 27.416546, 30.830381, 33.681097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.200001, "trend_reference": 37.662, "distance_from_trend": -0.277787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.103677, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.467749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.895932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.393939, "excess_performance": -0.350736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.277787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.467749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210684, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.393939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19278038, "relative_activity": 0.950134, "balance": 0.544361, "dry_up": 1.04259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119287, "annualized_volatility": 0.506723, "from_high_reference": -0.510615, "from_low_reference": 0.148649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.662, "fair_value_reference": 51.103677, "structural_low": 23.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.028049, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.04096, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.612053, "worst_return": -0.283973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.063646, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049508, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.408654, "worst_return": -0.302869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.188699, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.147906, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.348869, "worst_return": -0.348373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.311337, "energy": 88.591596, "activity_lines": [ 27.900667, 29.872364, 33.432476, 36.133742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.0, "volume": 22773836, "typical_volume": 21060730.05, "trend": 38.724, "fair_value": 51.375412, "relative_strength": -41.274303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.077506, "energy": 91.646398, "activity_lines": [ 26.242667, 28.434546, 32.282191, 35.143226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.02, "volume": 22631223, "typical_volume": 20751096.45, "trend": 38.159, "fair_value": 51.224912, "relative_strength": -33.315309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.280752, "energy": 84.281909, "activity_lines": [ 26.003334, 27.802364, 31.505714, 34.388129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 19278038, "typical_volume": 20289802.15, "trend": 37.662, "fair_value": 51.103677, "relative_strength": -33.895932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.69882, "energy": 78.523916, "activity_lines": [ 26.194667, 27.416546, 30.830381, 33.681097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }