{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c1b49f5-b84f-47fa-bff3-7a75e9677aa9", "symbol": "PXEN", "name": "Prospex Energy Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.823, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.715, "architecture_energy": 35.004, "architecture_maturity": 35.003, "architecture_confidence": 92.463, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.69, "rotation_up": 16.86, "upward_expansion": 5.16, "deceleration": 44.75, "rotation_down": 54.78, "downward_expansion": 80.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.030464, 0.031271, 0.031817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0315, "trend_reference": 0.0319, "distance_from_trend": -0.012539, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051785, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.391719, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.581922, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105263, "excess_performance": 0.054028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012539, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.391719, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.025569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3716707, "relative_activity": 1.063805, "balance": 1.025569, "dry_up": 0.646463, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133529, "annualized_volatility": 0.517463, "from_high_reference": -0.382353, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0319, "fair_value_reference": 0.051785, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.028369, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.039104, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039537, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041369, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.135417, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.220339, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.18052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.385417, "worst_return": -0.064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197917, "worst_return": -0.475177, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.27193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014184, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.446429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030769, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.06, "volume": 6311031, "typical_volume": 7360693.4, "trend": 0.095767, "fair_value": 0.053473, "relative_strength": -38.064999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"relative_strength": -22.387393, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.46569, "energy": 39.01194, "activity_lines": [ 0.0298, 0.030836, 0.031733, 0.032015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 981398, "typical_volume": 4272627.65, "trend": 0.031767, "fair_value": 0.051978, "relative_strength": -23.747238, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.542791, "energy": 42.011571, "activity_lines": [ 0.0294, 0.0304, 0.03136, 0.031834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 3716707, "typical_volume": 3493786.25, "trend": 0.0319, "fair_value": 0.051785, "relative_strength": -16.581922, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.715372, "energy": 35.003773, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.030464, 0.031271, 0.031817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }