{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c1c383c-715f-4959-ae91-d5999d97c3a2", "symbol": "IBI-F106", "name": "Psagot Index Funds Ltd. - Psagot ETF (4D) MSCI AC World", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.793, "architecture_energy": 63.046, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.072, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.35, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.78, 39.409091, 1001.118095, 1694.432473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.14, "trend_reference": 2491.877667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983892, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3261.079038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.830614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989273, "excess_performance": -1.018173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983892, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.077909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.745881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.59452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 616011, "relative_activity": 1.218096, "balance": 1.59452, "dry_up": 1.278529, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.381338, "annualized_volatility": 6.343905, "from_high_reference": -0.989609, "from_low_reference": 0.067269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2491.877667, "fair_value_reference": 3261.079038, "structural_low": 37.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.012699, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.009667, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.044931, "worst_return": -0.068146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051607, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.06675, "worst_return": -0.989219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.077471, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.103446, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096512, "worst_return": -0.039807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -98.936742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994031, "energy": 77.787836, "activity_lines": [ 39.201333, 439.769091, 1625.204762, 2217.442366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.47, "volume": 535600, "typical_volume": 488404.45, "trend": 2741.844667, "fair_value": 3297.732949, "relative_strength": -98.934564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.634684, "energy": 67.555569, "activity_lines": [ 39.346, 238.693273, 1399.759667, 2035.029957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.85, "volume": 444203, "typical_volume": 488556.35, "trend": 2617.406333, "fair_value": 3279.514038, "relative_strength": -98.867037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.229112, "energy": 66.913212, "activity_lines": [ 39.563333, 105.478, 1191.786619, 1860.70772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.14, "volume": 616011, "typical_volume": 505716.5, "trend": 2491.877667, "fair_value": 3261.079038, "relative_strength": -98.830614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.792637, "energy": 63.045866, "activity_lines": [ 39.78, 39.409091, 1001.118095, 1694.432473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }