{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c230da9-a368-4d7b-8aa6-342900fe1717", "symbol": "9600", "name": "Qomel Company Limited", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.218, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.973, "architecture_energy": 6.102, "architecture_maturity": 37.64, "architecture_confidence": 70.395, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.11, "rotation_up": 22.67, "upward_expansion": 19.77, "deceleration": 42.1, "rotation_down": 28.56, "downward_expansion": 53.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.666667, 48.414909, 48.849619, 48.770194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.0, "trend_reference": 49.096, "distance_from_trend": 0.018413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.963077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.773743, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012833, "excess_performance": 0.018996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037778, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017737, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042695, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.655597, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9853, "relative_activity": 0.547504, "balance": 1.655597, "dry_up": 0.240717, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050769, "annualized_volatility": 0.299317, "from_high_reference": -0.156118, "from_low_reference": 0.190476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.096, "fair_value_reference": 51.963077, "structural_low": 42.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013564, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012215, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.007344, "worst_return": -0.0196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.04, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011514, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.04, "worst_return": -0.04, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075439, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 40.0, "volume": 215080, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 41.5, "volume": 491118, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 39.5, "volume": 70588, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": 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"fair_value": 52.014609, "relative_strength": -2.122547, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.781815, "energy": 32.125463, "activity_lines": [ 47.913333, 48.194182, 48.785905, 48.806237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.0, "volume": 3966, "typical_volume": 18434.55, "trend": 49.179334, "fair_value": 51.98, "relative_strength": -0.058868, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.646646, "energy": 20.000499, "activity_lines": [ 47.933333, 48.113455, 48.734667, 48.717248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.0, "volume": 9853, "typical_volume": 17996.2, "trend": 49.096, "fair_value": 51.963077, "relative_strength": 1.773743, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.973151, "energy": 6.101847, "activity_lines": [ 48.666667, 48.414909, 48.849619, 48.770194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }