{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c23b9cc-c1a4-49c3-8a98-8661d8291c33", "symbol": "DCO", "name": "Ducommun Incorporated", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.216, "architecture_energy": 57.038, "architecture_maturity": 97.042, "architecture_confidence": 82.845, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 62.46, "upward_expansion": 81.12, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 20.29, "downward_expansion": 7.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.382667, 177.926545, 166.228667, 156.600022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 197.07, "trend_reference": 144.139667, "distance_from_trend": 0.367216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.574231, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.445819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 44.614117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.627602, "excess_performance": 0.501977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.367216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224203, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.445819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.496608, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.446141, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.627602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.603147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1490381, "relative_activity": 1.213678, "balance": 3.603147, "dry_up": 1.23511, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09167, "annualized_volatility": 0.34599, "from_high_reference": -0.063311, "from_low_reference": 1.325035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.139667, "fair_value_reference": 80.574231, "structural_low": 115.055, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.001117, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.013564, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.244913, "worst_return": -0.263821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.065461, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.036435, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.220797, "worst_return": -0.222819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.133573, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001681, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.474702, "worst_return": -0.186026, "sufficient": true }, { 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165.05, "volume": 1636688, "typical_volume": 1111275.65, "trend": 133.248, "fair_value": 77.154423, "relative_strength": 29.486296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.200909, "energy": 66.448562, "activity_lines": [ 173.160667, 165.516909, 153.876333, 145.409978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 168.47, "volume": 1916427, "typical_volume": 1165693.65, "trend": 135.722333, "fair_value": 77.915577, "relative_strength": 33.018669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.71757, "energy": 56.81274, "activity_lines": [ 172.119333, 167.321818, 156.158667, 147.682366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.44, "volume": 1309603, "typical_volume": 1169636.7, "trend": 138.421667, "fair_value": 78.739295, "relative_strength": 39.408027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.085887, "energy": 54.968159, "activity_lines": [ 173.806, 170.189636, 159.081571, 150.373828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 179.02, "volume": 1350385, "typical_volume": 1199420.25, "trend": 141.162333, "fair_value": 79.604295, "relative_strength": 37.679961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.469935, "energy": 47.889527, "activity_lines": [ 175.131333, 172.732182, 161.923857, 152.993075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 197.07, "volume": 1490381, "typical_volume": 1227986.75, "trend": 144.139667, "fair_value": 80.574231, "relative_strength": 44.614117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.215756, "energy": 57.038158, "activity_lines": [ 182.382667, 177.926545, 166.228667, 156.600022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }