{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c2c6f86-ca1a-4ad7-872b-e13b8751b675", "symbol": "1337", "name": "Asia Plastic Recycling Holding Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.979, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.392, "architecture_energy": 68.435, "architecture_maturity": 12.847, "architecture_confidence": 83.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.36, "rotation_up": 11.03, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 71.85, "downward_expansion": 90.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.715333, 4.867273, 4.946286, 5.097312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.67, "trend_reference": 5.250667, "distance_from_trend": -0.110589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.324679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.025261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13197, "excess_performance": -0.573342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001399, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261623, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.532674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1284604, "relative_activity": 0.422894, "balance": 1.532674, "dry_up": 0.549998, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073629, "annualized_volatility": 0.374851, "from_high_reference": -0.30506, "from_low_reference": 0.033186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.250667, "fair_value_reference": 6.324679, "structural_low": 4.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.011626, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.004568, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.197802, "worst_return": -0.158706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018387, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.18117, "worst_return": -0.144068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015607, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.065013, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.223529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.081455, 5.145905, 5.238108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 1512317, "typical_volume": 4372083.5, "trend": 5.267, "fair_value": 6.390192, "relative_strength": -33.259219, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.801532, "energy": 25.233549, "activity_lines": [ 5.038667, 5.052727, 5.101667, 5.211763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.66, "volume": 2387185, "typical_volume": 3766307.15, "trend": 5.260333, "fair_value": 6.367564, "relative_strength": -34.213441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.361901, "energy": 55.559263, "activity_lines": [ 4.899333, 4.986545, 5.042714, 5.172602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.68, "volume": 1498699, "typical_volume": 3292016.8, "trend": 5.256667, "fair_value": 6.346026, "relative_strength": -34.57694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.016286, "energy": 65.245719, "activity_lines": [ 4.778, 4.926545, 4.991238, 5.135161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.67, "volume": 1284604, "typical_volume": 3037647.8, "trend": 5.250667, "fair_value": 6.324679, "relative_strength": -36.025261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.392103, "energy": 68.435454, "activity_lines": [ 4.715333, 4.867273, 4.946286, 5.097312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }