{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c2d10a2-d7a9-45ea-bcf6-c0859855d1f9", "symbol": "8201", "name": "Inventec Besta Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.167, "architecture_energy": 61.554, "architecture_maturity": 16.435, "architecture_confidence": 81.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.16, "rotation_up": 11.18, "upward_expansion": 12.83, "deceleration": 38.57, "rotation_down": 72.4, "downward_expansion": 90.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.88, 12.237273, 12.640952, 12.860538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.85, "trend_reference": 13.246667, "distance_from_trend": -0.105435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.496474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.920378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144404, "excess_performance": -0.585776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.747172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115128, "relative_activity": 0.227848, "balance": 2.747172, "dry_up": 0.358031, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088932, "annualized_volatility": 0.294433, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.139423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.246667, "fair_value_reference": 15.496474, "structural_low": 11.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.006826, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026497, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.698113, "worst_return": -0.235915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004676, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038059, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.246377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.20132, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.026406, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.241706, "worst_return": -0.170139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.331325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106509, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.126555, "energy": 21.806398, "activity_lines": [ 13.073333, 13.19, 13.176667, 13.343763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.25, "volume": 345798, "typical_volume": 537540.9, "trend": 13.505, "fair_value": 15.729487, "relative_strength": -36.578772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.658844, "energy": 45.683423, "activity_lines": [ 12.77, 13.027273, 13.080238, 13.25828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.15, "volume": 203846, "typical_volume": 532269.85, "trend": 13.453333, "fair_value": 15.686859, "relative_strength": -37.950971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.880181, "energy": 55.333859, "activity_lines": [ 12.5, 12.854545, 12.984524, 13.17086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 237020, "typical_volume": 525088.05, "trend": 13.381667, "fair_value": 15.632051, "relative_strength": -39.518048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.357568, "energy": 67.644697, "activity_lines": [ 12.136667, 12.585455, 12.84381, 13.05129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.9, "volume": 167635, "typical_volume": 514578.4, "trend": 13.325, "fair_value": 15.552564, "relative_strength": -39.022603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.480954, "energy": 64.10173, "activity_lines": [ 11.966667, 12.401818, 12.74119, 12.955699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.85, "volume": 115128, "typical_volume": 505283.85, "trend": 13.246667, "fair_value": 15.496474, "relative_strength": -40.920378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.166709, "energy": 61.553581, "activity_lines": [ 11.88, 12.237273, 12.640952, 12.860538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }