{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c30560f-cb24-4817-8892-b34ec08ff719", "symbol": "4953", "name": "WITS Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.446, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.589, "architecture_energy": 24.012, "architecture_maturity": 26.599, "architecture_confidence": 66.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.83, "rotation_up": 39.36, "upward_expansion": 68.49, "deceleration": 86.27, "rotation_down": 23.13, "downward_expansion": 6.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.533333, 124.480298, 123.306326, 120.818798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 127.0, "trend_reference": 118.900065, "distance_from_trend": 0.068124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.29134, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.475929, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127207, "excess_performance": -0.314165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013344, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119809, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.520877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 987109, "relative_activity": 0.375266, "balance": 1.520877, "dry_up": 0.595674, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080048, "annualized_volatility": 0.349481, "from_high_reference": -0.089713, "from_low_reference": 0.285891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.900065, "fair_value_reference": 111.29134, "structural_low": 103.079118, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028929, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.014214, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261062, "worst_return": -0.025532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104685, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.074797, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.172839, "worst_return": -0.027242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.21718, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.522013, "worst_return": -0.092605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008811, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034188, "active": false 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125.134822, 120.793977, 119.212456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 121.5, "volume": 1557539, "typical_volume": 2610560.0, "trend": 118.538395, "fair_value": 111.38467, "relative_strength": -22.414042, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.136315, "energy": 20.463327, "activity_lines": [ 124.231701, 124.86723, 121.19698, 119.402931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.0, "volume": 1382659, "typical_volume": 2606201.1, "trend": 118.676414, "fair_value": 111.462833, "relative_strength": -22.114083, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.606043, "energy": 23.269752, "activity_lines": [ 124.130817, 124.954619, 121.796021, 119.755293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.5, "volume": 1516419, "typical_volume": 2595099.7, "trend": 118.825616, "fair_value": 111.433237, "relative_strength": -22.877431, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.554622, "energy": 16.380342, "activity_lines": [ 123.066667, 124.190889, 121.984936, 119.872944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.5, "volume": 2381308, "typical_volume": 2640693.95, "trend": 119.013634, "fair_value": 111.287801, "relative_strength": -21.213286, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.175471, "energy": 17.05425, "activity_lines": [ 123.466667, 124.2723, 122.610463, 120.303549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 127.0, "volume": 987109, "typical_volume": 2630421.9, "trend": 118.900065, "fair_value": 111.29134, "relative_strength": -22.475929, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.589164, "energy": 24.01161, "activity_lines": [ 124.533333, 124.480298, 123.306326, 120.818798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }