{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c3280e0-8a91-4950-8050-cb7ae4adc9b0", "symbol": "TRU", "name": "TruScreen Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.763, "architecture_energy": 53.284, "architecture_maturity": 13.299, "architecture_confidence": 83.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.12, "rotation_up": 12.06, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 40.19, "rotation_down": 66.5, "downward_expansion": 85.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.015867, 0.016418, 0.016948, 0.017116 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.017467, "distance_from_trend": -0.141234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.53096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.19494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.437376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10266714, "relative_activity": 4.784269, "balance": 1.437376, "dry_up": 1.555459, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127231, "annualized_volatility": 0.598046, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.071429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017467, "fair_value_reference": 0.021083, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.27907, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.036099, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.416686, "worst_return": -0.178084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.07527, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.3793, "worst_return": -0.328766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.17029, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.166536, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.142851, "worst_return": -0.383556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.95463, "energy": 26.458618, "activity_lines": [ 0.016933, 0.01751, 0.017415, 0.017532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.016, "volume": 260697, "typical_volume": 1851161.9, "trend": 0.017634, "fair_value": 0.021276, "relative_strength": -13.239604, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.224956, "energy": 40.696112, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.0172, 0.017291, 0.017424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 998934, "typical_volume": 1653367.3, "trend": 0.0176, "fair_value": 0.021224, "relative_strength": -8.169824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.957623, "energy": 39.594442, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017109, 0.017272, 0.017383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 1825290, "typical_volume": 1716358.45, "trend": 0.017534, "fair_value": 0.021154, "relative_strength": -12.80397, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.800703, "energy": 53.399147, "activity_lines": [ 0.0162, 0.016855, 0.017153, 0.01728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 10266714, "typical_volume": 2145931.65, "trend": 0.017467, "fair_value": 0.021083, "relative_strength": -18.53096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.76318, "energy": 53.283621, "activity_lines": [ 0.015867, 0.016418, 0.016948, 0.017116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }