{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c38e5ca-d57f-4440-8db6-24f854184eaf", "symbol": "BNDD", "name": "KRANESHARES TR QUADRATIC DEFLATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.686, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.229, "architecture_energy": 37.971, "architecture_maturity": 51.06, "architecture_confidence": 62.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.99, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 16.67, "deceleration": 68.27, "rotation_down": 69.45, "downward_expansion": 44.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.268317, 97.603143, 97.8497, 97.714815 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 95.58, "trend_reference": 97.36286, "distance_from_trend": -0.018312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.276255, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.202229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019355, "excess_performance": -0.10627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019355, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.415765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29028, "relative_activity": 0.294553, "balance": 0.415765, "dry_up": 2.128098, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019332, "annualized_volatility": 0.071027, "from_high_reference": -0.060237, "from_low_reference": 0.032614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.36286, "fair_value_reference": 102.276255, "structural_low": 93.765876, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017085, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.024665, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.024307, "worst_return": -0.035179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012296, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.070161, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.037093, "worst_return": -0.117462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010179, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001863, "worst_return": -0.084726, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 99.766972, 99.288308, 98.473634, 97.946326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.524753, "volume": 285978, "typical_volume": 71202.1, "trend": 97.23114, "fair_value": 102.552832, "relative_strength": -7.744025, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.780625, "energy": 23.548384, "activity_lines": [ 98.928052, 99.079669, 98.424945, 97.971176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.527772, "volume": 490776, "typical_volume": 95546.3, "trend": 97.291927, "fair_value": 102.445065, "relative_strength": -7.897309, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.541022, "energy": 16.615344, "activity_lines": [ 97.914464, 98.687802, 98.279475, 97.925797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.7924, "volume": 33109, "typical_volume": 97122.25, "trend": 97.350702, "fair_value": 102.365252, "relative_strength": -9.262638, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.800008, "energy": 30.873491, "activity_lines": [ 96.948831, 98.151683, 98.06977, 97.829054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.58, "volume": 29028, "typical_volume": 98549.4, "trend": 97.36286, "fair_value": 102.276255, "relative_strength": -12.202229, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.229408, "energy": 37.971333, "activity_lines": [ 96.268317, 97.603143, 97.8497, 97.714815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }