{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c428995-eb7c-4b61-8e30-8b84a57d3d72", "symbol": "EGHT", "name": "8x8 Inc Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.217, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.603, "architecture_energy": 7.379, "architecture_maturity": 18.88, "architecture_confidence": 60.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.53, "rotation_up": 29.28, "upward_expansion": 20.76, "deceleration": 34.99, "rotation_down": 25.45, "downward_expansion": 54.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.008667, 1.936727, 1.985143, 2.009032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.030667, "distance_from_trend": 0.132633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.330032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.123869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122137, "excess_performance": -0.309591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014399, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122137, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560469, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10809258, "relative_activity": 1.301033, "balance": 0.560469, "dry_up": 1.145324, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156706, "annualized_volatility": 0.829768, "from_high_reference": -0.201389, "from_low_reference": 0.464968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.030667, "fair_value_reference": 2.330032, "structural_low": 1.59, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.072539, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.031295, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.527638, "worst_return": -0.248571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.062176, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.112888, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.662722, "worst_return": -0.417266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005181, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.138665, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.843195, "worst_return": -0.146283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.056732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.367789, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088757, "worst_return": -0.202222, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.367089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", 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-48.28768, "energy": 25.21714, "activity_lines": [ 1.892667, 1.899455, 1.985952, 2.016925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 10482350, "typical_volume": 7814916.7, "trend": 2.017667, "fair_value": 2.35484, "relative_strength": -20.549048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.532946, "energy": 26.422456, "activity_lines": [ 1.850667, 1.858909, 1.960048, 1.99843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.9, "volume": 8748497, "typical_volume": 8002222.6, "trend": 2.018, "fair_value": 2.337788, "relative_strength": -13.391107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.019791, "energy": 18.008128, "activity_lines": [ 1.868667, 1.858727, 1.953095, 1.990839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 10809258, "typical_volume": 8308209.7, "trend": 2.030667, "fair_value": 2.330032, "relative_strength": -0.123869, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.603228, "energy": 7.378771, "activity_lines": [ 2.008667, 1.936727, 1.985143, 2.009032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }