{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c4686fd-f47c-4524-a2f5-631a45f4c69b", "symbol": "YCA", "name": "Yellow Cake plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.232, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.5, "architecture_energy": 30.012, "architecture_maturity": 55.578, "architecture_confidence": 86.932, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.41, "rotation_up": 25.99, "upward_expansion": 15.58, "deceleration": 46.4, "rotation_down": 37.51, "downward_expansion": 65.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 545.0, 541.3, 553.214286, 566.655914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 562.0, "trend_reference": 588.95, "distance_from_trend": -0.045759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 554.794231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.062204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105096, "excess_performance": -0.156331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6052628, "relative_activity": 1.294726, "balance": 0.570558, "dry_up": 1.282907, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048453, "annualized_volatility": 0.193974, "from_high_reference": -0.252182, "from_low_reference": 0.215924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 588.95, "fair_value_reference": 554.794231, "structural_low": 511.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024793, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.025627, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.139432, "worst_return": -0.134109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012027, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031221, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.241331, "worst_return": -0.143652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.090577, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010931, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.516793, "worst_return": -0.153952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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4809548.95, "trend": 592.266667, "fair_value": 553.234615, "relative_strength": -12.064264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.903428, "energy": 52.021578, "activity_lines": [ 530.266667, 537.418182, 555.721429, 571.395699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 547.5, "volume": 8382089, "typical_volume": 4926927.6, "trend": 590.7, "fair_value": 553.957051, "relative_strength": -11.270425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.467804, "energy": 45.300178, "activity_lines": [ 535.866667, 537.818182, 553.628571, 568.507527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 562.0, "volume": 6052628, "typical_volume": 4674832.6, "trend": 588.95, "fair_value": 554.794231, "relative_strength": -9.062204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.499645, "energy": 30.011622, "activity_lines": [ 545.0, 541.3, 553.214286, 566.655914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }