{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c46d608-3aba-4669-a002-3c966602ef44", "symbol": "PABE", "name": "Franklin MSCI Emerging Markets Paris Aligned Climate UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.862, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.01, "architecture_energy": 20.577, "architecture_maturity": 61.763, "architecture_confidence": 84.142, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.11, "rotation_up": 15.36, "upward_expansion": 41.52, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 44.88, "downward_expansion": 35.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.337667, 43.002046, 43.257179, 42.508484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.942501, "trend_reference": 41.531417, "distance_from_trend": 0.033976, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.181442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.204358, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08045, "excess_performance": 0.029215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062841, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022044, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.332046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18, "relative_activity": 0.313316, "balance": 0.332046, "dry_up": 0.665796, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038701, "annualized_volatility": 0.247963, "from_high_reference": -0.068088, "from_low_reference": 0.331447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.531417, "fair_value_reference": 31.181442, "structural_low": 36.549999, "invalidation": "A 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0.312789, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.312789, "worst_return": 0.312789, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044138, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025188, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006359, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.177846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"typical_volume": 68.3, "trend": 41.367416, "fair_value": 31.068878, "relative_strength": 0.544493, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.327783, "energy": 18.689092, "activity_lines": [ 42.279, 43.130227, 43.204833, 42.406866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.942501, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 57.45, "trend": 41.531417, "fair_value": 31.181442, "relative_strength": 2.204358, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.009963, "energy": 20.576903, "activity_lines": [ 42.337667, 43.002046, 43.257179, 42.508484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }