{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c50c57f-7c89-4927-bac4-319795be470e", "symbol": "STLD", "name": "Steel Dynamics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.717, "architecture_energy": 43.334, "architecture_maturity": 36.321, "architecture_confidence": 74.812, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 52.25, "upward_expansion": 75.79, "deceleration": 66.45, "rotation_down": 21.36, "downward_expansion": 4.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 250.537333, 246.246499, 243.194724, 231.211296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 262.45, "trend_reference": 215.823958, "distance_from_trend": 0.216037, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 143.654738, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.82695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.558686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.300572, "excess_performance": 0.113118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.216037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.82695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.235587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.904227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5700154, "relative_activity": 0.992111, "balance": 1.904227, "dry_up": 1.030192, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083782, "annualized_volatility": 0.406158, "from_high_reference": -0.088951, "from_low_reference": 1.209911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 215.823958, "fair_value_reference": 143.654738, "structural_low": 161.683931, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01919, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.000792, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.225434, "worst_return": -0.118037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024041, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.525271, "worst_return": -0.113373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083767, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338933, "worst_return": -0.060051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.270225, "energy": 27.170427, "activity_lines": [ 241.9, 243.7372, 239.865645, 228.001708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 262.45, "volume": 5700154, "typical_volume": 5745477.35, "trend": 215.823958, "fair_value": 143.654738, "relative_strength": 23.558686, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.717028, "energy": 43.333585, "activity_lines": [ 250.537333, 246.246499, 243.194724, 231.211296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }