{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c5304b0-4a1d-4879-b082-edb8bc952847", "symbol": "5315", "name": "United Radiant Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.603, "architecture_energy": 78.099, "architecture_maturity": 34.352, "architecture_confidence": 80.672, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.34, "rotation_up": 9.87, "upward_expansion": 17.34, "deceleration": 37.56, "rotation_down": 80.16, "downward_expansion": 95.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.166666, 19.666466, 20.155735, 20.521208 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.9, "trend_reference": 21.103318, "distance_from_trend": -0.104406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.319266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.759014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189098, "excess_performance": -0.63047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094359, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.36759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.926774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1011884, "relative_activity": 0.453196, "balance": 0.926774, "dry_up": 0.525114, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046635, "annualized_volatility": 0.152095, "from_high_reference": -0.227639, "from_low_reference": 0.029973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.103318, "fair_value_reference": 18.319266, "structural_low": 18.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019718, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.021153, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.136076, "worst_return": -0.102804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092896, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.004622, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.242623, "worst_return": -0.026596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188312, "worst_return": 0.06383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.091188, "energy": 78.315792, "activity_lines": [ 19.55, 20.129794, 20.452267, 20.800272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 881168, "typical_volume": 2248095.15, "trend": 21.20371, "fair_value": 18.299486, "relative_strength": -33.920754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.871313, "energy": 78.390328, "activity_lines": [ 19.36, 19.921747, 20.317495, 20.669834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.9, "volume": 1011884, "typical_volume": 2232773.1, "trend": 21.103318, "fair_value": 18.319266, "relative_strength": -36.759014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.60265, "energy": 78.098735, "activity_lines": [ 19.166666, 19.666466, 20.155735, 20.521208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }