{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c59294f-c2b0-4d0a-9eb6-3aa8ad6087ff", "symbol": "TZOO", "name": "Travelzoo", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.53, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -15.333, "architecture_energy": 30.527, "architecture_maturity": 57.706, "architecture_confidence": 89.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.47, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 45.59, "deceleration": 84.6, "rotation_down": 48.77, "downward_expansion": 34.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.563, 9.598727, 9.733571, 9.082237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.33, "trend_reference": 8.137833, "distance_from_trend": -0.099269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.615929, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.399289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.30427, "excess_performance": 0.116817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.30427, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.032265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 370010, "relative_activity": 0.4341, "balance": 2.032265, "dry_up": 0.671923, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183064, "annualized_volatility": 0.788597, "from_high_reference": -0.408394, "from_low_reference": 0.554613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.137833, "fair_value_reference": 10.615929, "structural_low": 4.715, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057783, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.035489, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.427896, "worst_return": -0.217544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129032, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.13058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.65327, "worst_return": -0.400605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053586, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.134006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08538, "worst_return": -0.397578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.218282, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.403248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.088889, "worst_return": -0.525131, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026233, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136792, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070886, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050209, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120791, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.456456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.279163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.02, "volume": 721026, "typical_volume": 684955.15, "trend": 6.957, "fair_value": 8.964359, "relative_strength": -0.812124, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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900054.2, "trend": 8.003, "fair_value": 10.595385, "relative_strength": 17.36833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.791721, "energy": 49.045833, "activity_lines": [ 11.109333, 10.907636, 9.986714, 9.058688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.025, "volume": 342656, "typical_volume": 853468.6, "trend": 8.1035, "fair_value": 10.612468, "relative_strength": 10.00483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.574807, "energy": 41.013771, "activity_lines": [ 10.741667, 10.795636, 10.088619, 9.18914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.23, "volume": 1224934, "typical_volume": 872130.9, "trend": 8.1135, "fair_value": 10.611827, "relative_strength": -20.333296, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.322672, "energy": 15.757261, "activity_lines": [ 9.504667, 10.162636, 9.908595, 9.132785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.33, "volume": 370010, "typical_volume": 852360.9, "trend": 8.137833, "fair_value": 10.615929, "relative_strength": -22.399289, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.332776, "energy": 30.527101, "activity_lines": [ 8.563, 9.598727, 9.733571, 9.082237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }