{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c5cab8d-e555-4503-8e72-11a82c873383", "symbol": "HCO", "name": "High Co. SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.083, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.242, "architecture_energy": 54.368, "architecture_maturity": 8.369, "architecture_confidence": 81.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.06, "rotation_up": 59.43, "upward_expansion": 86.97, "deceleration": 44.82, "rotation_down": 18.13, "downward_expansion": 11.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.664333, 3.636636, 3.590106, 3.538516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.69, "trend_reference": 3.49893, "distance_from_trend": 0.054608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.177388, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161331, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.824595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079267, "excess_performance": 0.025955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10907, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079267, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.743077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53602, "relative_activity": 0.745716, "balance": 2.743077, "dry_up": 0.635135, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037943, "annualized_volatility": 0.225961, "from_high_reference": -0.196056, "from_low_reference": 0.223392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.49893, "fair_value_reference": 3.177388, "structural_low": 3.016203, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.024415, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.134111, "worst_return": -0.16269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032198, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025089, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.206349, "worst_return": -0.069644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057789, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.043789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292063, "worst_return": -0.125465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.6, "volume": 55462, "typical_volume": 92407.0, "trend": 3.499913, "fair_value": 3.189848, "relative_strength": -4.413521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.722738, "energy": 16.180901, "activity_lines": [ 3.591, 3.592341, 3.523037, 3.497963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.605, "volume": 29967, "typical_volume": 82407.25, "trend": 3.50143, "fair_value": 3.187031, "relative_strength": -3.950994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.541732, "energy": 23.2006, "activity_lines": [ 3.595667, 3.599902, 3.535838, 3.504743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.635, "volume": 43683, "typical_volume": 75421.55, "trend": 3.499888, "fair_value": 3.184124, "relative_strength": -3.198358, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.042136, "energy": 31.766402, "activity_lines": [ 3.607, 3.609025, 3.551101, 3.51336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 55362, "typical_volume": 72390.8, "trend": 3.5002, "fair_value": 3.180901, "relative_strength": -2.701977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.071227, "energy": 51.96581, "activity_lines": [ 3.642333, 3.625273, 3.572016, 3.526271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.69, "volume": 53602, "typical_volume": 71879.95, "trend": 3.49893, "fair_value": 3.177388, "relative_strength": -4.824595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.241645, "energy": 54.36758, "activity_lines": [ 3.664333, 3.636636, 3.590106, 3.538516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }