{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c5cd344-65b8-4dc2-b5eb-883066606865", "symbol": "AWESGS", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Universal UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.894, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.958, "architecture_energy": 54.444, "architecture_maturity": 86.983, "architecture_confidence": 64.023, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.18, "rotation_up": 47.83, "upward_expansion": 79.6, "deceleration": 71.31, "rotation_down": 29.07, "downward_expansion": 8.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.838667, 21.794818, 21.559324, 21.141467 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.325001, "trend_reference": 20.677967, "distance_from_trend": 0.079652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.484566, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.461011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115135, "excess_performance": 0.032252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00461, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.849405, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206711, "relative_activity": 1.696352, "balance": 1.849405, "dry_up": 1.190239, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019812, "annualized_volatility": 0.136105, "from_high_reference": -0.004015, "from_low_reference": 0.225033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.677967, "fair_value_reference": 17.484566, "structural_low": 18.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.007359, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": 0.002952, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.063337, "worst_return": -0.093776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028962, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.008874, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.09917, "worst_return": -0.052447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.052033, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.007562, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.132771, "worst_return": -0.160463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.059169, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", 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20.718611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.940001, "volume": 236770, "typical_volume": 127025.9, "trend": 20.4182, "fair_value": 17.292194, "relative_strength": 0.767998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.523466, "energy": 74.534393, "activity_lines": [ 21.838667, 21.73, 21.193862, 20.822017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.549999, "volume": 141328, "typical_volume": 127382.15, "trend": 20.4822, "fair_value": 17.338566, "relative_strength": -1.760026, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.614259, "energy": 60.199402, "activity_lines": [ 21.756666, 21.718636, 21.278771, 20.895036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.584999, "volume": 131818, "typical_volume": 124856.0, "trend": 20.544833, "fair_value": 17.384213, "relative_strength": -1.455039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.700609, "energy": 50.435588, "activity_lines": [ 21.689333, 21.707181, 21.360657, 20.966185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.540001, "volume": 100295, "typical_volume": 121749.5, "trend": 20.6033, "fair_value": 17.431457, "relative_strength": -1.739669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.588602, "energy": 40.007451, "activity_lines": [ 21.630667, 21.680364, 21.42809, 21.030389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.325001, "volume": 206711, "typical_volume": 121856.2, "trend": 20.677967, "fair_value": 17.484566, "relative_strength": 0.461011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.958199, "energy": 54.443961, "activity_lines": [ 21.838667, 21.794818, 21.559324, 21.141467 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }