{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c5fa58a-105b-48c6-b850-28efde65734d", "symbol": "TKA", "name": "Telekom Austria AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.171, "architecture_energy": 40.454, "architecture_maturity": 19.182, "architecture_confidence": 68.888, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.2, "rotation_up": 57.07, "upward_expansion": 78.08, "deceleration": 59.77, "rotation_down": 17.35, "downward_expansion": 4.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.973333, 9.897034, 9.722707, 9.624967 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.96, "trend_reference": 9.492937, "distance_from_trend": 0.049201, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.273632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203824, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.197478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046218, "excess_performance": -0.128028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005461, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009421, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046218, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.920619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158275, "relative_activity": 0.851266, "balance": 1.920619, "dry_up": 0.999723, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040213, "annualized_volatility": 0.148236, "from_high_reference": -0.051429, "from_low_reference": 0.197115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.492937, "fair_value_reference": 8.273632, "structural_low": 8.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.016871, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011378, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.12999, "worst_return": -0.095908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.052758, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028881, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.230511, "worst_return": -0.116279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.076495, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.068162, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.374359, "worst_return": -0.16815, 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9.75807, 9.59968, 9.525105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.76, "volume": 224735, "typical_volume": 186775.75, "trend": 9.420937, "fair_value": 8.211048, "relative_strength": -13.269162, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.825043, "energy": 56.157369, "activity_lines": [ 9.888, 9.778228, 9.625689, 9.548894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.1, "volume": 204042, "typical_volume": 190654.85, "trend": 9.459937, "fair_value": 8.242764, "relative_strength": -9.782807, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.237554, "energy": 55.74471, "activity_lines": [ 9.964667, 9.857037, 9.682888, 9.592705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.96, "volume": 158275, "typical_volume": 185929.0, "trend": 9.492937, "fair_value": 8.273632, "relative_strength": -13.197478, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.170741, "energy": 40.45443, "activity_lines": [ 9.973333, 9.897034, 9.722707, 9.624967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }