{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c60db46-f5c2-4205-b34a-bf36ee1b7b59", "symbol": "002685", "name": "Wuxi Huadong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.562, "architecture_energy": 80.716, "architecture_maturity": 29.557, "architecture_confidence": 88.013, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.49, "rotation_up": 10.44, "upward_expansion": 19.61, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 76.19, "downward_expansion": 95.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.259333, 5.628545, 6.570429, 6.879699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.42, "trend_reference": 7.173667, "distance_from_trend": -0.244459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.716346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.48092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.198225, "excess_performance": -0.205625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.786817, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198225, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123565149, "relative_activity": 0.564151, "balance": 0.670148, "dry_up": 0.681782, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15711, "annualized_volatility": 0.580103, "from_high_reference": -0.48381, "from_low_reference": 0.185996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.173667, "fair_value_reference": 5.716346, "structural_low": 4.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.030489, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.01266, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.396, "worst_return": -0.275362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028834, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.028376, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.703704, "worst_return": -0.256881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031884, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.069866, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.312704, "worst_return": -0.200521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.399381, 7.447054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.1, "volume": 159184221, "typical_volume": 214887501.15, "trend": 7.42, "fair_value": 5.690385, "relative_strength": -33.86198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.473501, "energy": 82.642299, "activity_lines": [ 5.808, 6.409273, 7.168476, 7.29114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.99, "volume": 182665033, "typical_volume": 218380837.65, "trend": 7.324667, "fair_value": 5.697115, "relative_strength": -34.931112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.460419, "energy": 84.011854, "activity_lines": [ 5.437333, 6.041455, 6.938524, 7.134366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 131903828, "typical_volume": 219845598.8, "trend": 7.242667, "fair_value": 5.705513, "relative_strength": -30.503082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.316743, "energy": 83.337389, "activity_lines": [ 5.28, 5.779636, 6.73981, 6.99729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.42, "volume": 123565149, "typical_volume": 219028385.85, "trend": 7.173667, "fair_value": 5.716346, "relative_strength": -30.48092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.562437, "energy": 80.716457, "activity_lines": [ 5.259333, 5.628545, 6.570429, 6.879699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }