{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c624676-effc-4224-b4a0-61846cf03cc9", "symbol": "ADB", "name": "Applied DB Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.708, "architecture_energy": 95.936, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.326, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 83.61, "upward_expansion": 95.25, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 8.23, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.903333, 0.817455, 0.737061, 0.689148 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 0.634355, "distance_from_trend": 0.655224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.714386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.469794, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 45.556587, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.007836, "excess_performance": 0.815511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.655224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.469794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.690922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.455566, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.585608, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.007836, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 29.310801, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33182600, "relative_activity": 5.682429, "balance": 29.310801, "dry_up": 3.761733, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084982, "annualized_volatility": 0.470057, "from_high_reference": -0.018692, "from_low_reference": 1.083606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.634355, "fair_value_reference": 0.714386, "structural_low": 0.503934, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.066544, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.084304, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15493, "worst_return": -0.19863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.165525, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.118386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.063062, "worst_return": -0.186667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.243836, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.215945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033504, "worst_return": -0.460784, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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63.597086, "energy": 68.679323, "activity_lines": [ 0.697333, 0.676909, 0.635457, 0.61276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.68, "volume": 3569900, "typical_volume": 1825020.0, "trend": 0.593738, "fair_value": 0.719098, "relative_strength": -4.582202, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.421087, "energy": 45.184777, "activity_lines": [ 0.692, 0.681636, 0.642499, 0.618561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7, "volume": 4803300, "typical_volume": 1982760.0, "trend": 0.597738, "fair_value": 0.71665, "relative_strength": -2.89746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.202188, "energy": 38.853218, "activity_lines": [ 0.69, 0.688182, 0.650833, 0.625416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.82, "volume": 32704800, "typical_volume": 3561920.0, "trend": 0.606055, "fair_value": 0.71503, "relative_strength": 12.930115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.735769, "energy": 52.415902, "activity_lines": [ 0.731333, 0.714364, 0.669979, 0.639756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.94, "volume": 17176000, "typical_volume": 4358985.0, "trend": 0.618372, "fair_value": 0.714355, "relative_strength": 29.985985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.386977, "energy": 80.667418, "activity_lines": [ 0.806667, 0.758364, 0.699184, 0.661301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 33182600, "typical_volume": 5839510.0, "trend": 0.634355, "fair_value": 0.714386, "relative_strength": 45.556587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.707629, "energy": 95.935693, "activity_lines": [ 0.903333, 0.817455, 0.737061, 0.689148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }