{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c63e1b9-99cb-4de7-ad70-c8848e64f6e1", "symbol": "SRIW", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.941, "architecture_energy": 48.266, "architecture_maturity": 63.758, "architecture_confidence": 80.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.25, "rotation_up": 40.13, "upward_expansion": 68.06, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 20.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1937.926667, 1942.4, 1914.095711, 1874.155616 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1986.8, "trend_reference": 1832.030118, "distance_from_trend": 0.08448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1633.693479, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21614, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.612259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131096, "excess_performance": 0.07986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08448, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053048, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016123, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131096, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.080479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11547, "relative_activity": 1.117488, "balance": 1.080479, "dry_up": 1.559445, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018937, "annualized_volatility": 0.133812, "from_high_reference": -0.161579, "from_low_reference": 0.209487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1832.030118, "fair_value_reference": 1633.693479, "structural_low": 1642.680054, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008419, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.004786, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.055563, "worst_return": -0.060153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097179, "worst_return": -0.146781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012915, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003082, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083635, "worst_return": -0.103114, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016577, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26468, "worst_return": -0.085095, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031715, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073928, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.819068, "energy": 55.348648, "activity_lines": [ 1932.793333, 1937.359998, 1895.411424, 1858.405473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1904.8, "volume": 26830, "typical_volume": 11245.8, "trend": 1826.124277, "fair_value": 1629.511301, "relative_strength": -2.285464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.029242, "energy": 38.434447, "activity_lines": [ 1919.873333, 1932.630909, 1901.308092, 1863.78944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1986.8, "volume": 11547, "typical_volume": 10333.0, "trend": 1832.030118, "fair_value": 1633.693479, "relative_strength": 1.612259, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.941235, "energy": 48.265755, "activity_lines": [ 1937.926667, 1942.4, 1914.095711, 1874.155616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }