{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c6514da-7c49-4948-8be7-0ec6a522502e", "symbol": "002961", "name": "Ruida Futures Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.744, "architecture_energy": 48.717, "architecture_maturity": 42.797, "architecture_confidence": 94.408, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 7.33, "deceleration": 55.84, "rotation_down": 50.99, "downward_expansion": 78.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.159334, 19.325818, 20.524894, 21.485742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.68, "trend_reference": 22.660523, "distance_from_trend": -0.131529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.964729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.896534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191128, "excess_performance": -0.198528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07699, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.298405, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27025407, "relative_activity": 0.781626, "balance": 0.298405, "dry_up": 0.87254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087936, "annualized_volatility": 0.441032, "from_high_reference": -0.384576, "from_low_reference": 0.093333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.660523, "fair_value_reference": 16.964729, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.01226, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.00336, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.299392, "worst_return": -0.159044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040696, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035628, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.371807, "worst_return": -0.151999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068895, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.071455, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.35668, "worst_return": -0.212888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-21.755791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.732202, "energy": 71.11794, "activity_lines": [ 18.784, 19.397637, 20.949345, 21.91919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 30677829, "typical_volume": 37351589.75, "trend": 22.898413, "fair_value": 16.927737, "relative_strength": -12.857759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.90033, "energy": 54.186145, "activity_lines": [ 18.969334, 19.331818, 20.723415, 21.693382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.68, "volume": 27025407, "typical_volume": 34575889.1, "trend": 22.660523, "fair_value": 16.964729, "relative_strength": -16.896534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.74439, "energy": 48.716876, "activity_lines": [ 19.159334, 19.325818, 20.524894, 21.485742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }