{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c71f8ad-79cd-4265-9464-08d909920ef1", "symbol": "SPISI", "name": "UBS SPI ESG ETF CHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.51, "architecture_energy": 70.599, "architecture_maturity": 29.995, "architecture_confidence": 80.444, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.68, "rotation_up": 71.19, "upward_expansion": 90.06, "deceleration": 50.9, "rotation_down": 21.89, "downward_expansion": 12.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.710533, 19.568654, 19.130533, 18.805725 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.945999, "trend_reference": 18.475333, "distance_from_trend": 0.079602, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.260373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.970121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094371, "excess_performance": 0.011487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079602, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081475, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009701, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.349617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 489715, "relative_activity": 0.563713, "balance": 2.349617, "dry_up": 0.548953, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018839, "annualized_volatility": 0.144668, "from_high_reference": -0.005931, "from_low_reference": 0.237652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.475333, "fair_value_reference": 15.260373, "structural_low": 16.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.015568, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003308, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.089882, "worst_return": -0.115996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007161, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.010902, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.07867, "worst_return": -0.021315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.019043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020563, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.054286, "worst_return": -0.0162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"volume": 489715, "typical_volume": 868731.25, "trend": 18.475333, "fair_value": 15.260373, "relative_strength": 0.970121, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.510323, "energy": 70.599449, "activity_lines": [ 19.710533, 19.568654, 19.130533, 18.805725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }