{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c730515-3118-4880-9057-1b4a0e5d186c", "symbol": "TR", "name": "Tootsie Roll Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.456, "architecture_energy": 16.347, "architecture_maturity": 6.3, "architecture_confidence": 59.286, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.99, "rotation_up": 24.59, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 35.81, "rotation_down": 32.45, "downward_expansion": 55.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.874, 38.741859, 39.228885, 39.753477 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.63, "trend_reference": 39.861628, "distance_from_trend": -0.005811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.572554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.469803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043758, "excess_performance": -0.081867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043758, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.718373, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 656945, "relative_activity": 0.72093, "balance": 1.718373, "dry_up": 0.870326, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068687, "annualized_volatility": 0.280262, "from_high_reference": -0.118322, "from_low_reference": 0.193782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.861628, "fair_value_reference": 32.572554, "structural_low": 35.78, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009108, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01327, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.224747, "worst_return": -0.059378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047276, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.005472, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.28526, "worst_return": -0.067265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092675, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.186851, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.297916, "worst_return": -0.100081, 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"typical_volume": 914119.8, "trend": 39.429219, "fair_value": 32.350217, "relative_strength": -11.618033, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.764891, "energy": 20.554716, "activity_lines": [ 38.620246, 38.625075, 39.84586, 39.945989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.08, "volume": 886929, "typical_volume": 929506.85, "trend": 39.519113, "fair_value": 32.403724, "relative_strength": -7.904822, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.032631, "energy": 7.145972, "activity_lines": [ 38.846667, 38.627071, 39.696704, 39.923459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.52, "volume": 845635, "typical_volume": 925099.8, "trend": 39.562787, "fair_value": 32.451946, "relative_strength": -10.749954, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.630686, "energy": 11.345965, "activity_lines": [ 38.533333, 38.405697, 39.407213, 39.794484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.02, "volume": 782817, "typical_volume": 926141.45, "trend": 39.722818, "fair_value": 32.507795, "relative_strength": -7.985716, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.329813, "energy": 11.572347, "activity_lines": [ 38.634667, 38.509771, 39.281228, 39.759466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.63, "volume": 656945, "typical_volume": 911246.05, "trend": 39.861628, "fair_value": 32.572554, "relative_strength": -9.469803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.455523, "energy": 16.34669, "activity_lines": [ 38.874, 38.741859, 39.228885, 39.753477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }